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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

On Sentiment

It has been my observation over (sadly) a long period of time that when all of the “stars” line up and point in one direction, it’s often time to go in another direction. The commentary on the TV shows and newspapers is usually the last place one would go to for investment advice. The media is, however, a good place to consider if one was looking for signs that sentiment has gotten away from reality. I wonder if the market enthusiasm in this ABC News clip isn’t a signal that we have reached a tipping point.




All of these “stars” are now on the same page. Is it possible that they could all be right? If so, that would be a first.

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12 comments:

  1. I'm investing in Happy Meal toys.

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    1. I am investing my money in canned foods and shotguns.

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  2. But What do I Know?February 22, 2012 4:27 AM

    Last night All Things Considered led with Dow 13,000, and had sound-bite speakers like Hugh Johnson crowing about what an important psychological boost it would give the economy.

    I like ATC/NPR, but they usually call a bottom when they lead with stock prices--don't know if they're as good at tops. . .

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  3. "Recovery Board"? Oh, for heaven's sake. This la-la land network has been in the Obama tank since day one. Forget rising gas prices, look for a story soon on the "progress" we're making in domestic energy.

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  4. What a crock.

    Look at these people. El Arian is a good enough guy and I'll give Morici and Kotok a pass, but Diane Swonk and that little creep Zandi are nothing more than shills.

    And has there ever been a more phony on-air personality than the execrable Diane Sawyer? She learned to do all the sincere nonverbals in talking head school. It's the key to making millions.

    Makes me want to hurl.

    As they say, the key to good communication is sincerity, and once you learn to fake that, you've got it made.

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  5. Maybe they are...maybe they aren't. They're rather irrelevant.

    Point is, even if they ARE "right", does it have anything whatsoever to do with the real economy - that one down there on Main Street?

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  6. Yes, this definitely gives market bears hopes.... give it about another month or so to get retail "investors" into the market. Once DJIA breaks cleanly above 13K, should see the top at 14K.

    Then again, it's an election year, so Obama, Bernanke, and Co. are pumping in tons of money into the system and want to run massive deficits to keep "stimulating"... if they decide to buoy the market like that, the big tank job won't happen until 2013... that will be the beginning of a very long, painful bear market.

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  7. See also THE BULLS ARE BACK, RIGHT ON CUE at http://www.news-to-use.com/2012/02/the-bulls-are-back-right-on-cue.html

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  8. My question is as always timing...

    Can Helicopter Ben print enough "prosperity" fiat to prop up the DJIA above 13K through the election, or does the prop fail, and the correction occurs before?

    I guess it may depend on the timing a false flag attack designed to justify a strike on Iran by the US/UK/Israhell's Axis of Agression.

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  9. I propose that this boom/bust trap for fleecing the retail traders should be called the Cramer Trap.

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  10. Either they're all completely on the SELL side waiting for the DUMB money to come in...OR....
    They know this crack up boom has got legs....which goes against the tide of current thinking and fear in the market.
    One would look to the QE programs in abundance in EUR, UK, USA, CHINA, JAPAN....to get the feeling that markets can only go in one direction....the sustainability of that move is the Question.

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  11. I'm an avid reader of this blog, Zero Hedge and a couple others. The bulk of commenters on all seem to feel that any day now we're going to hell in a handbasket.

    Whereas I also have a conservative investment stance and am paying very close attention to many things that could provide indications of a economic/financial markets cratering...I have this comment and a question.

    I own a retail company since early 2005. Naturally, business went soft in 2009 and 2010. Things stabilized in 2011 and early 2012 has been a big upside surprise. It's common knowledge that Jan-Feb are the slowest months in retail. Well, we've been rocking & rolling.

    Most of our customers are individuals but I can say after almost 2 years of absence, our corporate customers are now showing up again. And they're only buying from us because they're booking business. I've asked some of our vendors, my handyman and other small business people and am getting positive feedback from most about a noticeable upswing in their business.

    So, armageddon may be coming but I thought I'd pass along that right now the boots on the street are feeling some healthy action.

    What are the rest of you experiencing/noticing business-wise?

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