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Thursday, December 30, 2010

Dinner up High



Sadly, I’m not on anyone’s A list for a holiday party. I was fortunate enough to get an invite to a swell dinner bash in the City. A nice lady I know (who has no interest in men) needed a date. The thinking was that I would not make a hash of it, so I got the nod.

I was in that enviable/unenviable position of not knowing anyone. There is only a dozen, so I schmooze as best I can. The place is filled with NY types; lawyers, bankers, buy-side types, RE sharpies, art dealers, ad execs, a few (very busy) wives and one degenerate blogger. My kind of crowd. The hostess gives me a quick tour of the place, (30th floor, three bedrooms, view of the park) and drops me with the ‘guys’.

Normal banter from the boys.

“How much money has been lost in the past six weeks betting on NY football teams?”
Answer: Staggering.

“Is Cialis really better than Viagra?”
Answer: It depends. For a quicky Viagra is fine. For something “special” Cialis was a better choice. I was surprised that a cost benefit analysis was part of the discussion. Apparently Cialis is up to $22 a pop and Viagra is still only ten bucks. Of course no one had any first hand knowledge on any of this, it was all “I’ve heard” or “I read”….

“How’s business?”
Answer: Fucking great. This is not a crowd that brags. They don’t really need to. So you had to read into the words; “We were very pleased” or “Best year since 06”. My favorite; “Lots of smiles at bonus time at my shop”.

“What’s 11’ looking like?”
Answer: Fucking great. While this group is a very small subset of the economy they are seeing plenty of opportunities. They are hiring, expanding and acquiring. They all have full plates for the year. This represents a significant change from two years ago.

“What about Obama?”
Answer: Deep disappointment. Keep in mind that it is this crowd who gave Obama hundreds of millions a few years ago. The attitude; “He took his eye off the ball on the economy and wasted his first two years on health care legislation that we will never see” summed up the feelings.

I (of course) pushed my hot buttons.

“What about QE?”
Answer: It’s good for the market. Nothing else matters.

“What about the sorry state of municipal finance?”
Answer: It’s all priced in.

“What about the deficits?”
Answer: They don’t matter. It’s all priced in.

Dinner was a bunch of courses. Something for everyone. This was not family style. I did my best with which fork to use and when. The small talk was over my head.

“Alta or Vail this winter?”
Answer: Vail. Apparently there are no go good restaurants in Utah.

“Was Bloomberg bluffing when he said he was not a presidential candidate?”
Answer: He was bluffing.

“Should one consider full body scans?”
Answer: Absolutely not. Most either had done this or knew someone who had. The conclusion was that if you did the scans the results were 100% certain that they would find something. Interesting state of denial

“Is Sara Palin for real?”
Answer: Yes. While they expressed fear and loathing they also recognized that the level of disappointment in the country with Obama and the Democrats was likely to bring a very different candidate in 2012.


One fellow actually had a very good rep. Been in the investment biz for a long time and damn good at it. Someone asks him, “Is investing overseas still the right strategy?”. He wisely dodges the question with an obvious answer, “If you don’t have some non US exposure you’re not wisely invested.” Another who was looking for some free advice asks the follow on, “Yes, but which country?” He answers, “I focus on the countries that have the highest work ethic.” This last comment prompts a conversation that lasts through coffee.

The talk was about which countries ranked high on that list. This was not about which worker produced more. The answer to that is easy. A worker for VW in Germany produces much more than does a worker in Viet Nam. However, the conclusion at the table was that on the narrow issue of work ethic, Vietnamese workers had a better attitude than German workers.

The general question of East versus West was sort of dismissed. The obvious answer was East. The more interesting debates were on the narrower questions:

France – Germany? Easy for this group.
Italy – Spain? Not so easy.
UK – France? Harder still.

How about China versus India? That’s a tough one. Harder still, Taiwan versus Korea. Israel ranked high. Some Eastern European countries made the final list. Russia was dismissed on the issue of work ethic.

Brazil confounded the group. Everyone recognized the rising tide for this country. But on the work ethic issue Brazil was not high on the list.

The diners did not fall prey to the stereotype of workers from Latin America. Too many of us had worked, lived or done business in that region to make that mistake.

This was all just “dinner talk”. I found it interesting. I’m not going to publish the list we came up with. I think the readers can do that as well as we did. There is a level of arrogance to this type of ranking. Some of the biases we brought to the discussion no doubt tainted our conclusions.

On the ride home I thought of the evening. I had hoped that there would be something interesting to write about. My first thought was that there was not. Just a nice dinner, nothing memorable. But later I reviewed the list we came up with and I was struck by what was missing.

This group of relatively sophisticated, well-traveled and knowledgeable people spent an hour 300 feet above the lights coming up with the country comparisons. America was mentioned and compared on a number of occasions. But the final list did not include the USA. If the elitist don’t think much of our collective work ethic, what does that mean?
Answer: Nothing good.


15 comments:

  1. If the ranking was part of a discussion thread that started with investing _overseas_, perhaps there was an implicit _elsewhere_ caveat to the rest of the conversation? /shrugs

    ReplyDelete
  2. But What do I Know?December 30, 2010 7:27 AM

    Interesting observation. I'll just add that these people probably feel as though they have more interests in common with the newly rich in Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai, etc. than their fellow countrymen in Dubuque, Savannah, or Little Rock. They should drive through fly-over country some time.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What Utah doesn't have is free-flowing alcohol. There are many good restaurants in the city, they just aren't near the slopes. Especially at Alta.

    The point is these people can afford the luxury of a preference ladder about their skiing and seem to do so with little regard to how lucky they seem to be.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Apparently there are no go good restaurants in Utah." Very true overall with the exception of the Central Cafe in Moab run by someone who fled LA.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "But the final list did not include the USA. If the elitist don’t think much of our collective work ethic, what does that mean?
    Answer: Nothing good."

    interesting that those engaged in financial speculation and attachment to political power have such low opinion of American work ethic. I wonder what the various American economic classes during their holiday dinners had to say about those engaged in national/ international finance. My guess is probably close to the French peasant before the revolution for most while others hoped to join the financial jet set.
    Either way your comment displays the growing hole in our social fabric as millions of young Americans deep in school debt seek reasonable employment and find ghosts of the economic past which should make for interesting holiday party discussions in the coming years.

    ReplyDelete
  6. America was mentioned and compared on a number of occasions. But the final list did not include the USA. If the elitist don’t think much of our collective work ethic, what does that mean?

    You mean the elitists constantly running back to the USA and constantly depending on the Federal Reserve and Department of Defense to prop up their positions in the world?

    What does that mean? It means that Sarah Palin is just a warm-up act for the main show of their worst nightmares. It means here are the glitterati of the Court of Versailles, circa 1788.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I think perhaps they're wrong. Maybe it's no longer "work ethic" that is an important attribute for anyone, anywhere...obviously mere "hard work" will accrue no one much wealth in coming years.

    I suspect that what will make or break a man, anywhere, will be risk appetite and risk assessment.

    Let's just call it "risk management". And it will be individual by individual, not by country...

    ReplyDelete
  8. bruce, looking to place a short AUD/CAD trade with capped risk, but as an equities guy, don't know where to find a place that trades options on the pair (retail btw). looked on CME, no luck. any thoughts?

    a 2nd best would be a micro futures on CME but again they don't have the pair on micro. they do have however AUD/USD and USD/CAD contracts. any pitfalls I should pay attention to if I cross these two?

    thx

    ReplyDelete
  9. But What do I Know?December 31, 2010 6:22 AM

    Hey Bruce, check out the dive in SS receipts for December--unprecedented. . . Can this be due to the payroll tax deduction (I thought it wasn't supposed to start until 2011).

    ReplyDelete
  10. What do i know:

    The December SS numbers are a mess. They took a one time charge in fica for $10b, they took another charge in SECA for 3b.

    These are adjustments to prior years. SSA has previously announced that this would happen. So not really a surprise.

    The YoY #s
    2009 Payroll receipts = 669.5b
    2010 PR = 641.5

    The ~28.3 b difference is largely attributable to these adjustments. The real story therefore is that revenues were flat YoY. The economy and the unemployment is killing SS.

    The reductions in payroll start in 2011. I am waiting to see how this is a accounted for at SSA. It is making forecasting damn near impossible for me......

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dave: I am not an expert on the AUD crosses. So I am going to pass at making a recommendation.

    There is risk in what you describe. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  12. But What do I Know?December 31, 2010 10:53 AM

    Thx, Bruce. I forgot about the adjustment--you did mention that before. . .

    Your extra penny idea is brilliant!

    ReplyDelete
  13. "A worker for VW in Germany produces much more than does a worker in Viet Nam. However, the conclusion at the table was that on the narrow issue of work ethic, Vietnamese workers had a better attitude than German workers."

    Are there any chances that you can elaborate on this? I know that Vietnam people rank pretty high on the optimism index. Salary for workers in Vietnam industrial parks is also not that high, compared with that in China and Thailand. However, I am still not sure what criteria you guys took into consideration to get the conclusion.

    Best,

    ReplyDelete
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