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Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Wired

I know a fellow who used to run a decent amount of equity money. His specialty was retail stocks. He had a good track record. He took maximum advantage of the quarterly income reporting cycle of a few medium sized, well know big box retailers. He played that game from both the short and the long side. If you catch that right you can make some good money.

This group hired a number of part-timers around the country. These people would sit outside a specific store with a hand counter and measure traffic. Traffic does not equal sales. But if you have hard numbers on traffic your estimate on sales will be better than most.

So they had an edge. They earned it and benefited from it.

Could you define the information they obtained as “material”? Sure you could.

Could you define this information as "non-public"? Sure you could.


Should we be in the process of unfolding the onion of what has been defined as insider trading there is going to be a very big surprise. I think that all successful hedge funds and big investors have “counters” that are gathering/reviewing data. They all have (or try to have) an edge. What do you think they are paid 2&20 for?

I have said this forever. If you’re a small investor relying on public information you don’t have a chance. The S&P is ‘unched’ for a decade. Wired money made a few hundred percent.

7 comments:

  1. Great post with a disturbing conclusion. Nowhere for a retail trader to invest his/her worthless fiat.

    Appreciate all your posts on ZH. Have a happy Thanksgiving Bruce.

    earnyermoney

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  2. Nice Bruce! First Blog I can understand. LOL
    Happy Thanksgiving!

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  3. It's not completely lopsided. The little guy has a few advantages:

    1) Invest in what s/he knows. E.g. an industry he works in.

    2) Liquidity is usually not a problem.

    3) Take the long view. The Street is notoriously short sighted.

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  4. Bruce,

    I've recently come to your site and I find it wonderful.

    Happy Thanksgiving.

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  5. Bruce,

    The greater difficulty comes from midlevel employees disclosing inside data. But outside of that, I agree with you.

    David

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  6. Sure you could.

    No, not really. Because the only reason it is "non-public" is because the 'public' didn't hire the counters -- they weren't smart or industrious enough for that.

    Honestly, based on this/your example I do not see a big issue here.

    The type of 'inside traders' targeted are those who either 1) obtain info from company insiders, info that is definitely not available to the public, no matter how many counters they hire, or 2) those who manipulate the market to their advantage somehow becasue they have the ability to do so.

    Anyway, I'm willing to take my chances, and hope the SEC pursues these issues in a competent way (yikes!), especially 2), which I think is far more common than most people would imagine.

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