Saturday, November 20, 2010

It’s the ‘Bernank’ that done it!

Bernanke has made himself (and thereby the entire Federal Reserve) the lightening rod for domestic and international inflation. What a dumb PR move that was. There are any number speeches by Ben and his cohorts where they stuck there neck out and said, “inflation is our goal”. Ben & Co. are going to eat those words. If you ask ten people if INFLATION is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ nine of them would say it's BAD. It is the way we grew up. Ben is doing something bad.

A very small percentage of the population actually understands what the Fed is doing. Far more people have watched the YouTube cartoon explanation of QE than have listened to/read Bernanke. But a great number are aware that the Fed is engineering some inflation. So when they get hit in the head with some big price increase the first thing they are going to say is, “It’s the ‘Bernank’ that done it!

Consider me as a case in point. I already pay a ridiculous $1,629 a month for health insurance. But today I get this nice letter from United Health telling me that the good folks at the NY State Insurance Commission have approved a 12.5% increase for just the next six months. I am looking at a 25% YoY increase in healthcare cost.


That NY State is granting 25% rate increases is a crime in my opinion. That Obama Care created a three-year window of maximum gouge opportunities for the likes of UNH is also a crime. The problems with health care and the cost of insurance can’t really be blamed on Ben and the Fed. But I suspect that many folks are going to blame him anyway. After all, he’s the one who wants inflation, so when we get it, the fingers of blame are going to be pointed in his direction.

There are millions of Americans who are getting letters like this. You will see stories in the MSM in the next week or so. "Insurance Companies Gouge Customers" is a good Thanksgiving story. It’s even possible that the crooks in Albany will be called on the carpet for allowing such an egregious increase in a basic cost of living. The boys at UNH will defend what they have done and just blame the increase on INFLATION in the cost of health care at every level.

I (begrudgingly) accept that Bernanke and the rest of the merry folks at the Fed don’t really want inflation that just eats up consumers. They want to see inflation from the demand side as evidence that the economy is in fact growing. But it is not going to go down like that.

Over the next few months we will see a number of big jumps in basic costs. Food, health care, insurance, transportation, gas and electric are all going up in price. We may not see the evidence so clearly in the headline numbers. My 25% increase in health care will not show up. That does not matter. Tens of millions of people will feel this pinch. There will be no blaming of OPEC, or China this time. The blame is going to be placed squarely on the shoulders of Bernanke and his vocal enthusiasm for ‘the’ inflation.

I will tell you that I was damn mad to see my annualized insurance bill go up by 25%. A lot of others will soon feel the same when they get a similar letter. Or when they look at their next electric bill, the cost of vegetables or even the price of a pair of jeans. A good number will say in anger, “It’s the ‘Bernank’ that done it”.

Bernanke has tied his success to a rise in inflation. America is going to absolutely hate that. Even greater public distrust of the Fed will inevitably follow. Politicians will jump on the bandwagon (they always do). The end result will be that QE will be a disgraced policy and the Fed will be weakened for a long time. Ben will get his inflation, he is also going to lose his job.



9 comments:

  1. Bruce BanisterNov 20, 2010 10:13 AM

    quit yer whinin' an git to workin', next year you get a 30% increase

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  2. Just as bad, I cannot see how deficit spending by the federal government -- which is what QE-2 is designed to accommodate -- will create enduring, wealth-producing employment. And Bernanke cites the prospect of lasting high unemployment as the primary reason for QE-2. So it makes no sense from that standpoint as well.

    I think he just doesn't know what else to do. But he sees himself as responsible for doing something, so QE-2 is it.

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  3. Of late I'm thinking we'll see "disinflation".. sinking value of existing assets {primarily real estate} and rising commods prices which will visit our grocers and gas stations soon enough. The American people notice gas prices, and when they get into the mid $3.00s the people will get mighty grumpy.. I believe we'll see that in 2011. The last time gas was $4.00/gal was Sept 2008....

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  4. do some substitutions or hedonics, bruce. :)

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  5. Bruce,

    Did you happen to read Bill Gross' latest update?

    "The Fed wants to buy, so come on, Ben Bernanke, show us your best and perhaps last moves on Wednesday next. You are doing what you have to do, and it may or may not work. But either way it will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment."

    Spicy! Especially the Wild West line, "so come on, Ben Bernanke, show us your best and perhaps last moves".

    Dropped this on'em too: "Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. Public debt, actually, has always had a Ponzi-like characteristic."

    http://www.pimco.com/Pages/RunTurkeyRun.aspx

    Nice piece!

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  6. Hey Bruce,

    I have my HSA with the BC/BS Carefirst, a nonprofit. I just got my premium increase today. How much? 48%!! Be willing to send you a copy of the increase if you want.

    We are healthy, and hardly use the doctors, thank God, but this is ridiculous.

    David

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  7. But What do I Know?Nov 21, 2010 09:40 AM

    BB is encountering a factor which was never contemplated in those somnolent discussions of the Great Depression back in Princeton--that sentiment might shift "against" Fed easing, and the Open Market Committee could find itself under fire for doing too much. As I have said before, there is a tremendous desire for a scapegoat here, and BB has unwittingly posted his C.V. for it. When a know-nothing like Palin can gain traction railing against the Fed and the other governors distance themselves from QE in the Op-ed pages, you know his freedom for action will be drastically circumscribed.

    Your point on the term "inflation" is well-taken--most people are instinctively against it. For the Chairman to suggest that his policy was intended to foster it was a myopically bad choice of terms, whatever the efficacy or desirability of the phenomena.

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  8. The question is where will these extra charges go – profits, executive compensation, stock market, to the top 1%. Sounds like the corporate and money-bag types play the hapless timid academicians for fools.

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  9. David Merkel,

    Jeepers! I thought I had it bad with a 25% increase. You have 48%!

    I don't know what I would do with it if you sent it.Maybe better for you to write a blog and show your insurance disaster to the world as I did.

    How can we afford to pay this? If we can't, we just get sick and die. What a piece of crap this is.

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