The following are some graphs of individual states. I plugged in the start period as 2006 and a $1mm price tag (the site lets you use any variables you like). The results are not surprising. “Sand” did very poorly. The upper mid-west is bleeding. Snow resorts seem to have been clobbered. Texas did pretty well. I could find only one other bright spot in all the country that not only sustained value but also saw prices rise. This RE winner shone while most other parts of the country were tanking by 30+%. Guess where that is? The District of Columbia, of course. I believe that there is a direct correlation to the results in D.C. and the rest of the country. Washington is flourishing while the rest of the country withers. Not a surprise to me.
I found the site useful. I was able to confirm that the disagreeable relative who said, “RE is stable here in San Diego”, was full of crap. Prices in that zip code were down YoY for the past four years. I was also able to disabuse a RE agent in Naples, Florida who told me, “Prices are down at most by 20% from the high, they are already starting to recover”. They are actually closer to 40% off that high water mark and they continue to fall.
Note: In my neck of the woods (N. of NYC) there was a lousy selling season (ends August 1). It was better than 2009. There is still a tremendous overhang of properties. Increasingly, bank owned REO is a factor. There are many “must sell” homes. A number of these have quietly dropped the asking price another 10%. There does not seem to be elasticity of demand. There are cheap mortgages and cheap houses and no demand. I have to believe that this is occurring in other parts of the country. The graphs from the FHFA are headed lower. Except the one for D.C.
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Clearly in many areas house prices are still too high considering people's falling real income.
ReplyDeleteKennewick-Pasco-Richland WA also appears to have risen from 2005 - present. Likely due to govt money for the Hanford nuclear site.
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree prices are, at the State level, still too high. I would argue Real Estate valuation is mostly local. In my area, prices are down about 10% and the inventory is moving, but that's it.
ReplyDeleteI know for a fact parts of San Diego are down a little, but generally stable, while other parts of San Diego are still declining.
I think you and your friends/relatives can both be right.
California is a big place Bruce. Sadly not all or even most of it is that desirable. What is strange is that in San Diego where I live, not much is moving, but prices haven't come down much THIS YEAR. There was a huge collapse in the outer rings of hell in 2008, Temecula, Escondido, Ramona and Chula Vista. Here in the center prices came off a bit, but have held steady.
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