Monday, June 28, 2010

Fed Economist: Bloggers are Stupid

A Richmond Va. Federal Reserve Economist, Kartik Athreya wrote a paper recently that trashes economic bloggers. Mr. Artheya has a PhD from the University of Iowa. I’m not so sure a few years in corn land gives him the right to take cheap shots at the new media. I am absolutely convinced that this type of thinking should not be expressed by Fed officials. It proves to me that the Fed is an elitist organization that is out of touch with America in 2010. The full report from Athreya is here. Some of the more offending comments:
Writers who have not taken a year of PhD coursework in a decent economics department (and passed their PhD qualifying exams), cannot meaningfully advance the discussion on economic policy.
So we have to go to school for two years to be able to write about the issues of the day. That would exclude me and a lot of others. The fact that I worked on Wall Street for 30 years does not qualify me to say a word.
The response of the untrained to the crisis has been even more startling. I listen to Elizabeth Warren on the radio fearlessly speculating about the nature of credit market dysfunction, and so on.
Taking on Elizabeth Warren is a big mistake Mr. Arthreya. You will regret this choice of words.
The real issue is that there is extremely low likelihood that the speculations of the untrained, on a topic almost pathologically riddled by dynamic considerations and feedback effects, will offer anything new. Moreover, there is a substantial likelihood that it will instead offer something incoherent or misleading.
Everything that comes from the Federal Reserve is incoherent and misleading.
The sophomoric musings of auto-didact or non-didact bloggers or writers is instructive. For those who want to really know what the best that economics has to offer is, you must look here.
The only people you should listen to is Federal Reserve economists? I take a different view. The last people you should trust in this matter is FRB economists.
The general public are simply being had by the bulk of the economic blogging crowd.
The general public is being had. But not by the bloggers. They are being had by the folks who make the choices for us at the FRB.
The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, or Federal Reserve System.
Actually the views expressed are a perfect representation of the mind set at the FRB. Narrow minded, elitist and just plain wrong.


I would suggest that Mr. Arthreya do some additional research. He should look up the word “hubris” (extreme haughtiness or arrogance). After he understands that concept he should write an apology, that or he should resign from the FRB.


41 comments:

  1. All a PHD does is allow you to teach in a university IMHO. Those who cannot succeed in the business world teach. What a jackass.

    Did you check that switch?

    DS

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  2. This guy should look up "regulatory capture", and then reread his own sentence "Writers who have not taken a year of PhD coursework in a decent economics department (and passed their PhD qualifying exams), cannot meaningfully advance the discussion on economic policy."
    Innovation is far more likely to come from outside the system, and he knows it. He's just pissed that he will become irrelevant.

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  3. Is his employer the same Federal Reserve that failed to forecast the recession *after* it had already started?

    Pot, kettle, etc. Most econ bloggers are, truth be told, crap. But the Fed itself has a dreadful success rate and figuring out...well...anything, really.

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  4. why resign - he belongs to the right org!

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  5. typical. academics love to foist themselves as authorities on everything - the economy is no different. the reality is that most of them don't know a damn thing and that's why their only argument is to brand as "stupid" anyone who disagrees.

    Bernanke: "At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."

    it was global - could he have been more wrong?

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  6. Elizabeth Warren is simply wonderful. It's this reason that she will never be ensconed into a position of any real authority.. she deans to tell it like it is. Again and again she has warned that the middle class will pay for this debacle. Obama, thru taxation, works tirelessly to ensure this truth.

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  7. But What do I Know?Jun 28, 2010 07:03 PM

    I imagine the medieval scholastics felt quite similar about random monks opining on the number of angels that could dance on the head of a pin. . .

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  8. All professions are conspiracies against the laity. (G.B. Shaw)

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  9. Congrats on your Zero Hedge link. Keep giving 'em hell, Bruce.

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  10. Amen.

    I've read about a third of Bernanke's book on the Greatg Depression, and browsed/speed-read most of the rest. I could find no mention of the enormous investment bubble that preceded it.

    I'm sure he would argue that bubbles don't cause depressions, and that the proof is that not all bubbles are followed by a depression. It would seem not to occur to him that the size of the bubble and the amount of debt taken on might make a difference. It appears from the other comments he has made that he is a true believer that bubbles can be allowed to grow and burst with impunity, as everything will be just fine as long as the central bank spews enough money into the economy to "mop up" afterward.

    Is the "we couldn't possibly know what the correct prices of assets are, so it would be completely wrong for us try to deflate bubbles" mentality still alive and well inside the Fed? I encountered it some years ago in a comment-exchange with David Altig (now back at the Fed) on his "macroblog".

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  11. Obviously an idiot. As so many (soft science) PhDs seem to be.

    Keep at it Bruce. Your blog offers a unique and needed perspective.

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  12. This from a group of economists who couldn't see a bubble as it was bursting in their faces.

    Not to mention some econ bloggers are professors at schools more prestigous than Iowa, or people who were professional economists on Wall Street when he was in diapers.

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  13. The World Needs a Libertarian Revolution !
    The Whiskey Rebellion was a resistance movement in the western frontier of the United States in the 1790s, during the presidency of George Washington. The conflict was rooted in the dissatisfaction in western counties with various policies of the eastern-based national government. The name of the uprising comes from the Whiskey Act of 1791, an excise tax on whiskey that was a central grievance of the westerners. The tax was a part of treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton's program to centralize and fund the national debt)
    The Tea Party Movement is one step in the right direction
    The World Needs a Libertarian Revolution

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  14. The height of elitism.

    It was the bloggers that got me out of the market in'07-'08, not Bernanke and Paulson telling us, "it's contained."

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  15. Great Post, picked up by AEP at the DT.

    The link to Kartik Athreya's paper doesn't work (I think it is pretty important to support as what he is saying is outrageous).

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  16. Requests for the paper to Kartik.Athreya@rich.frb.org

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  17. Good God, you people are retarded. Please stop before you produce more.

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  18. Love your take-down - definitely the funniest I've read.

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  19. This link should work:

    http://ideas.repec.org/e/pat14.html

    Remembering that the vitriol exuding from this a$$hole's ramblings exposes the increasing level of fear and panic infiltrating the mouldering remains of the Power Elite's temple.

    Such a vassal deserves the highest contempt of his peers and I for one trust they will excommunicate him pronto.

    It's seems the bloggers are gaining ground in the battle of the airwaves! Bravo all.

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  20. @ Anonymous said... June 29, 2010 6:40 AM
    "The World Needs a Libertarian Revolution"

    AMEN TO THAT

    We are working on it in UK - we have to stop the EU but soon........we must join with fellow patriots in USA and fight this cancer from within......go for it!

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  21. You know why they (in this case she) don't want average joe blogging about economic issues? It's real simple because once we (that is the people) get a whiff even if just small of what is cooking under those books all hell is going break loose. Bank runs like the world has never seen.

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  22. Try this link

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/33655771/Economics-is-Hard

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  23. This is why Mr. Athreya rants against bloggers.
    So far, I’ve claimed something a bit obnoxious-sounding: that writers who have not taken a year of PhD coursework in a decent economics department (and passed their PhD qualifying exams), cannot meaningfully advance the discussion on economic policy. Taken literally, I am almost certainly wrong.

    You left out the last line to advance your argument.

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  24. haha...gold bitchez....until Mr. Athreya can conceptualize Maxwell's equations in his sleep, I'll consider any Fed economist an intellectual lightweight.

    Signed,

    former rocket scientist

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  25. Great post Bruce.

    Here is a serious question: is Kartik Athreya's attitude compatible with free of thought or it needs censorship and authoritarianism to prosper?

    Wait... don't you love to have your economic life to be in hands of people that doesn't have their own businesses in the system but instead, they do that as their job?

    This guy doesn't have clients, he has bosses.

    When you get people to get paid for theorizing you get that. Is what they do for a living: invent guessing machines and when those doesn't work they get defensive with their jobs rationalizing with more theorizations instead of fixing the real problems in practical ways.

    oh wait! you should really have to feel relief because they have PhD's right?

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  26. This guy is a pernicious damn idiot who ought to be ridiculed from now to the end of his life.

    What would all the leading physicists in the entire world have written in 1904 about the musings of an obscure Swiss patent clerk on matters of space and time?

    EVERY SINGLE DAMN ONE OF THEM, without exception, would have said he was insane. EVERY DAMN ONE.

    I am married to an academic. I have met hundreds of them. Most don't have the sense to run a DAMN HOT DOG STAND.

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  27. The FED is a private institution but they exist thanks to the taxpayer and I think this guy should not be working for us. He truely summarizes all that is wrong with our financial system. Will someone at the FED please FIRE HIS ASS asap!

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  28. If the Fed is so smart why didn't they tell us about the impending financial crisis?

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  29. The rooster deeply believes that the sun rises every morning because it commands so.

    Arrogant? ignorant? or both?

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  30. Wow! Thanks for setting me straight, Mr. Arthreya.

    With the economy humming along on all cyclinders I will sleep soundly tonight knowing the genius of Mr. Arthreya and his ilk.

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  31. The way Economics is taught, it is a difficult subject. They make it that way to discourage the average student. They want us to "leave it to the experts."

    If these "experts" are so brilliant, why is the world's economy such a mess? Actually the question is, is the real reason why they do this to line establishment pockets at the expense of the rest of us?

    Of course!!!!! We are all being scammed by the establishment!

    Economics is not really hard. It is, indeed, the study of scarce resources, unlimited wants, etc. but more importantly, it is the study of *human action.*

    We do desperately need to close the Fed and go back to a gold standard. If we go on like this there will be a collapse worse than the Great Depression which was also caused by the expansion of money and credit.

    About a year and a half ago I wrote an essay reviewing some works on monetary policy (the Fed) by the economist Murray Rothbard. Check it out.

    http://www.alicelillieandher.blogspot.com and click on "2009/9"

    I suppose they will want to shut me down too.

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  32. My parents (only one of whom graduated high school) taught me to be wary of credit. If the economists and executives running things followed this rule, we wouldn't be in this mess.

    Savings good. Debt bad.

    Credit is the problem, not the solution. For the citizens and the government. It's too easy for the government to spend our money IN ADVANCE.

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  33. I am really shocked that somebody could be as arrogant as that. It is surprising that the US (which claims to be a global leader) should have institutions that employ such people. This person is so stuck in the morass of economics that he seems to have missed a the fact that there is something called History. How i wish that this person would at least read the economic aspects of history, so that he knows what exactly is wrong with his analysis. What use is his Ph.D if he lacks rationalism (as is clearly discernible from his writings). His arrogance essentially springs from the lack of intellectual depth. History is replete with examples of people who take to polemics of a base kind when they lack intellectual clarity of thought or are exasperated when they realise that they are horribly wrong

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  34. What_an_ass!

    All I can say is, thank God I was reading bloggers in '04 and '05, so I knew it was time to put my house in Florida on the market, sell it in 3 weeks, make a bundle of profit, and move to a more stable housing market and build a bigger, brand new home on acreage and pay cash for it. I have a builder friend who listened to the NAR and the FED, built a spec house in the $700,000 price range put it on the market in '07 and still can't sell it! They're screwed financially, thanks to those "Ph.Ds" who lied through their teeth.

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  35. To the relatively untrained eye, it looks obvious that the path to sustainable prosperity has never been, and cannot be, to borrow a lot of money that you cannot afford to repay, in order to buy goods and services that you do not need.

    Only after years of training in economics might it appear otherwise.

    There are no examples in history that I am aware of that would suggest that this strategy might work, and the largest and most obvious recent example where this has been done on a huge scale, in Japan, suggests just the opposite.

    It is my belief that economists in twenty years will look back and wonder what the many economists like Kartik Athreya and Ben Bernanke were smoking to make them think that blowing up a series of asset bubbles with excessive borrowing was a good idea.

    They seem likely to join the many other groups of trained experts historically who defended the orthodoxy of the day past all reason, only to see their ideas later ridiculed and consigned to the dustbin of history.

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  36. The problem is that these "experts" approach monetary policy and practises as if they stem from an infallible system, and whilst the system is complex in nature, it has no basis in reality. In other words- it is all monetary "theory", despite all the intimidating mathematics and convincing algorithms.

    They imagine that due to the years it took them to partially comprehend "the system", their knowledge and imagined wisdom could not be usurped by a mere mortal blogger. The people are starting to become disillusioned with the fractional reserve monetary system, with its debt based fiat currency, which, in my mind, is nothing more than a modern system of economic slavery.

    Wake up people.
    Viva la revolucion.

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  37. I think Kartik was being forgiving. He should have taken on clueless failed economists like yourself.

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  38. btw, glad to identify myself as soon as you confirm you have the guts to keep my post rather than deleting it.

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  39. July 5, I never delete a post. Especially ones that are critical.

    Send me an email with a complete rant if you like. You can remain ANON too.

    bkrasting@gmail.com

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  40. "decent" economics department?? ..... where did this "genius" get his PhD from? University of Iowa. Hilarious.

    What a muppet. I have worked in the markets for 20 years and at one point i had 6 PhDs working for me, and they were all hopeless (except for one guy from MIT who was brilliant)

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